Edit: Ich habe gerade das bittere Gefühl, dass Adamin mich gleich mit einem riesigen Post aus einer Menge Qullenmaterial erschlägt
Gut möglich. ^^
Ich halt's aber kurz.
Aber besteht denn auch tatsächlich eine solceh Verbindung ?
Ja.
Zumindest lässt der Text daran keinen Zweifel.
"I was very troubled at that time," he [Gandalf] said, "for Saruman was hindering all my plans. I knew that Sauron had arisen again and would soon declare himself, and I knew that he was preparing for a great war."
[...]
"I thought then, and I am sure now, that to attack Lórien and Rivendell, as soon as he was strong enough was his original plan. It would have been a much better plan for him, and much worse for us."
[...]
"The Dragon Sauron might use with terrible effect. Often I said to myself: 'I must find some means of dealing with Smaug. But a direct stroke against Dol Guldur is needed still more. We must disturb Sauron's plans. I must make the Council see that.'"
[...]
"'Far away here, I wonder if you fully realize the strength of a great Dragon. But that is not all: there is a Shadow growing fast in the world far more terrible. They will help one another.' And they certainly would have done so, if I had not attacked Dol Guldur at the same time."
Dass Gandalf hier nicht bloß Hypothesen aufstellt und
versucht Verknüpfungen zu finden, sondern mit Autorität und Gewissheit spricht, ergibt sich aus dem Kontext. Das Kapitel spielt in Minas Tirith nach der Zerstörung des Ringes. Gandalf
der Weiße beantwortet den Hobbits und Gimli einige ihrer Fragen über alles was passiert ist. Mit der 'Power of Hindsight'. (dem Wissen im Nachhinein?)
Die Richtigkeit von Gandalfs Aussagen wird unter anderem durch seine
Übernatürlichkeit unterstützt. Gandalf ist in der Lage
das Spielfeld (also Mittelerde) von außen zu betrachten und daraus mehr Wissen abzuleiten als die Spieler (also Sterbliche) haben.
Es werden im weiteren Verlauf eindeutige Hinweise gebracht, dass Gandalf viel mehr weiß als er den Hobbits und Gimli sagt, aber ihnen nicht alles sagen wird.
Then looking hard at Gandalf he [Gimli] went on: "But who wove the web? I do not think I have ever considered that before. Did you plan all this then, Gandalf? If not, why did you lead Thorin Oakenshield to such an unlikely door? To find the Ring and bring it far away into the West for hiding, and then to choose the Ringbearer – and to restore the Mountain Kingdom as a mere deed by the way: was not that your design?"
Gandalf did not answer at once. He stood up, and looked out of the window, west, seawards; and the sun was then setting, and a glow was in his face. He stood so a long while silent. But at last he turned to Gimli and said: "I do not know the answer. For I have changed since those days, and I am no longer trammelled by the burden of Middle-earth as I was then. In those days I should have answered you with words like those I used to Frodo, only last year in the spring. Only last year! But such measures are meaningless. In that far distant time I said to a small and frightened Hobbit: Bilbo was meant to find the Ring, and not by its maker, and you therefore were meant to bear it. And I might have added: and I was meant guide you both to those points.
"To do that I used in my waking mind only such means as were allowed to me, doing what lay to my hand according to such reasons as I had. But what I knew in my heart, or knew before I stepped on these grey shores: that is another matter. Olórin I was in the West that is forgotten, and only to those who are there shall I speak openly."
Das ganze hängt natürlich mit vielen weiteren Textstellen aus allen Büchern zusammen. Fast jedes Mal wenn "Der Westen" erwähnt wird, geht es fast immer im Subtext auch um Valinor, und die übernatürlichen Mächte in Mittelerde, Schicksal und Freier Wille, etc. Ähnlich ist es, wenn "Zufall" besonders betont wird.
In Zusammenhang mit diesem Wissen ergibt sich für mich die obige Interpretation von Gandalfs Aussage. Das alles aber im einzelnen aufzuschlüsseln würde viel zu lange dauern.
Ich bitte um Nachsicht, und Nachfrage falls etwas noch unklar wirkt.